Amazon Update (amended)

Disclosure: I own shares and January 2025 call options of Amazon

(Note: In addition to this piece, I encourage you to read this update here)

First of all, thank you for the feedback and inputs on yesterday’s update on Amazon. One such interaction led me today to re-write some key sections of yesterday’s update.

I was chatting with my friend Scuttleblurb on Twitter, and as we were discussing my piece on Amazon, it became clear to me that one of my assumptions was clearly incorrect. The mistake is material enough that I am writing a separate post on it to explain the mistake and the implications after correcting the mistake. Before I move onto that, I want to thank Scuttleblurb i.e. David Kim for his input. David is one of the best in this business, and I encourage you to subscribe to his research.

I want to be respectful to the subscribers who already read yesterday’s post, so I will first quickly mention my mistake and then move onto the discussion on all the changes in my estimates.