What Anthropic's 25 Gigawatts Can Earn in 2030

On Wednesday I showed what OpenAI has to believe to break even in 2030 and said I would run the same exercise for Anthropic. However, when I started working on Anthropic, I realized the relevant questions are a bit different for the company. Indeed, it was reported just yesterday that

Groceries, Aggregators, and Agents

Just over two and a half decades after Walmart was founded, the company entered the grocery industry in 1988 and then in just thirteen years after getting into this business, Walmart became the largest grocery player in the US. Grocery leadership was also a major unlock for Walmart since not

What You Have to Believe for OpenAI to Break Even in 2030

Programming Note: MBI Deep Dives will be off tomorrow, but I will be back on Friday. Yesterday I mentioned that I would publish my work on OpenAI today. Let me be clear that I have no idea what OpenAI will earn in 2030. But I wanted to get a good

My Last Financial Model

A couple of months ago, I wrote about Terence Tao’s proclamation that mathematics is evolving from an “era of proof scarcity to an era of proof abundance”. The more I use the frontier models, the more I realize this may be the eventual fate for most knowledge work itself.

Meta’s Trojan Horse for the Consumer Internet

When I wrote my “first impression of Muse” piece last week, I promised that I would write a follow-up piece on how I am using it after a month. I may still do that, but after using Muse for the last five days, I feel compelled to share my

Why “Affordable Luxury” Doesn't Compound

Programming Note: MBI Deep Dives will be off during the weekend and I will resume the daily posting cadence from Monday next week. Even though I sold my Lululemon position last year, I have to admit I don’t quite feel much relief for avoiding the 50% drawdown experienced this

Muse Implications for Consumer Internet

Since I have received several emails and messages from readers after publishing my first impression of Muse yesterday, I want to elaborate behind the paywall a bit more on how I think agents such as Muse can have an impact on some of the consumer internet companies. Subscribers get the

First Impression of Muse

Meta launched Muse yesterday which is Meta’s attempt to be your personal agent to get things done for you. Meta’s launch blog post as well as its approach to security are both worth reading. In my post, however, I will share my personal experience of using Muse since

Pulte’s Bag of Tricks

While covering FICO’s FY 3Q’26 earnings, I wrote: “…there is no doubt that Pulte’s FHFA is overtly hostile to FICO and perhaps investors are concerned that Pulte may have more tricks in his bag to truly hurt FICO’s compounding machine.” On Thursday evening last week, Pulte

A quick update on Deep Dives

I won’t be publishing anything new today, but I wanted to share a short update on the Deep Dives I’ve been working on. Last month, I started working on Micron to understand the memory complex a bit better. After a couple of weeks, I concluded that not only